(BBC) China’s population will peak in 2029 at 1.44 billion before beginning a period of "unstoppable" decline, a government report says.
The China Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) study says the country must implement policies to handle a smaller workforce and an older population.
Both changes combined could cause "very unfavourable social and economic consequences", the report says.
Latest UN estimates say China has a population of 1.41 billion.
In 2015 the world’s most populous country ended its one-child policy in a bid to tackle the problems.
The study appears in CASS’s Green Book of Population and Labour.
Working population numbers were now stagnating, it said, with a low fertility rate set to cause further issues.
By the middle of the century, China’s population is expected to drop to 1.36 billion - a fall in the labour force of close to 200 million.
If fertility rates stay low, the population could drop as low as 1.17 billion by 2065.