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It is better to prepare for the worst while hoping for the best. That way, one will not be disappointed if things don't turn out the way expected using past yardsticks. Which have changed.|
As a global superpower, the US has shown one true characteristic of its hegemony - put the blame for its own problems on others.
It played the global financial markets and through its multinationals milked others while neglecting to retrain its own workers, retool its industries, and revamp its infrastructure.
Deflecting those domestic neglects from sight in a series of foreign policy dramas, the American bear is now foraging for more honey. As all know only too well, the bear is most dangerous when counter-attacking facetiously self-constructed threats.
Today the US economy is on a roll, productivity and wages are rising, jobs are filling up, retail is growing fast and the dollar is appreciating in relative value. However, how much of all that was caused by the general sentiment generated by reducing US income tax tickling the corporate sector remains to be seen even when the US internal debt has already shot past the point of no return.
In the past, the US spent and borrowed. Now it spends and blocks. How that affects other economies should leave no doubt better strategies for national development must be constructed in this inter-connected world.
Meanwhile, the two US brokers - equity and forex - are playing their games to repatriate funds and money power back to US shores, thereby disrupting the economies of other nations so that US protectionist populism is on the rise and will spread throughout its populace, thereby adding strength to US hegemony which will undoubtedly be flexed even more in years to come.
Because things are moving again in the US economy, Trump will likely be returned and since he plays only zero-sum games, it will be harsh on many other nations and their economies in the next six years. They should therefore come together among themselves to be more prepared for what will come out from the trumpian march of US exceptionalism in the next few years.
More analysis will be needed in the coming months. In particular, the prospect of coopetition (cooperative competition) as opposed to strategic competition. There are many possible configurations for coopetition made all the more possible in the digital era which is now just waiting for the big breakthroughs.
Meanwhile a recent analysis argues that US-China relations will remain tense and therefore both will seek to reduce bilateral dependence, buttress domestic resilience, and project advantaged strengths.
In that analysis, the US is seen to lead in military and soft power, global reach of its financial markets and dollar currency, innovation and high-end manufacturing, and sophistication of its corporate sector while China's strengths lie in mid-level manufacturing infrastructure, technology parts and new industries, domestic savings and investments, size of human capital, and speed of central government response.