Author: UYA

China thinks long-term on financial stability — so should we   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2018-8-11 04:12:08 |Display all floors


That's what I call it a super smart strategy, after all.
            
  

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Post time 2018-8-11 14:35:18 |Display all floors
chinoamigo Post time: 2018-8-11 04:12
That's what I call it a super smart strategy, after all.

Long term with a lot of thought.

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Post time 2018-8-12 15:37:17 |Display all floors
TruismStrike Post time: 2018-8-10 23:14
Are we? In the US we can't even tell; actually to quote one commentator, 'This is what a booming ...

You are long winded
  1. quote one commentator
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I'm sure Fox News will agree with that opinion.

From what I read.....
People are hurting in the US. Farmers who can't sell the soybeans, pig farmers who had a great market in China. The blue collar, all American worker is the one's affected by all this. Wall street will feel the effects soon enough.
In China......
"Business as usual"

I still think the CPC has deeper pockets than the US. A few days ago, it was reported that they have $400 billion stashed away for times like this.
Again, China are savers NOT debtors.

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Post time 2018-8-12 15:40:29 |Display all floors
Boston101 Post time: 2018-8-11 02:45
Sure, China can irrigate a small amount of land but the country is just too large to adequately ir ...

Why would China (or any country) need to all its land to be arable?
Where will people live?
China takes care of 4 times the population of America, with less arable land.
And still have a lower poverty rate.
(swing and a miss)

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Post time 2018-8-15 01:27:48 |Display all floors
UYA Post time: 2018-8-12 15:37
You are long winded
I'm sure Fox News will agree with that opinion.
From what I read.....
People are hurting in the US. Farmers who can't sell the soybeans, pig farmers who had a great market in China. The blue collar, all American worker is the one's affected by all this. Wall street will feel the effects soon enough.


This is so silly. Do you really believe that? Every Soybean in the US could die tomorrow and it would be nothing to the economy. It is nice the US has such an amazing productive and agricultural and food industries but it does not constitutes a major part of US exports or revenues. No one is worried or cares at all.

Let's put it in perspective. Chinese soya product and meats exports are 1% of all US exports. There will be other markets for these products; maybe just at a lower price. Even if the entire 1% is lost this is minimal losses in a trade war for an economy that is not at all based on agriculture really.

On the other hand there are reports China is about to reverse it's ban on US soya just becuase it does not have alternative supplies. There is no enough from south American producers. Quite likely even if China doesn't repeal the bans it will end up buying US soya reprocessed through south America. Soya products, as the main feed for chinese farm animals, ultimately makes up the source for about 25% of China's protein. So it is something China needs regardless of the ban one way or another if they are not to suffer malnutrition.

While China is targeting a much smaller % of US exports US is targeting 100% of Chinese exports to the US and 46% of China's trade overall which is processing trade for mostly western companies.
Add in the other early damages to China in the trade war, 22% decline in both currency and stock market, losses of half of China's forex reserves 3 years ago, 300%+ debt to GDP ratio and unsustainable housing bubble and it seems like you are high on some kind of drugs to maintain a positive outlook. China's pride in this situation will be its downfall. The timing of this is too poor for China and you don't seem to realize at all how bad it is.

In China......
"Business as usual"


Yes because 300% debt to GDP, massive housing bubble, and currency/stock markets down by roughly 22% each is normal? But then why is consumer confidence tanking in China according to every survey?

I still think the CPC has deeper pockets than the US. A few days ago, it was reported that they have $400 billion stashed away for times like this.


$400 billion seems like not remotely enough. China burned through about 1 trillion in 2015 trying to prop up the yuan to prevent capital flight. The real trade war hasn't even started yet. You are going to need a lot more than $400 billion. Also that isn't that much; China spent like 536 billion in 2008 and that is part of what has them in the bubble mess they are in now because that money was spent poorly in dead end wasted project that collapse quickly from shoddy quality. ie worthless.

So BORROW all the money you want but spending it poorly is part of the problem China is in today in the first place!

Again, China are savers NOT debtors.


Then why has China's household debt risen from 36.4% of GDP in 2015 to 48.4% of GDP in January of 2018?

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/households-debt-to-gdp

Also, you can't save and fuel domestic consumption. When China's exports decline from the trade war without domestic consumption to pick up the slack a recession will incur.

You are long winded



Those were ALL quotes from local news stations around the US remarking on the robust strength of the current US economy. Not me being long winded but every news and analyst in the world that has been remarking on the current positive outlook for the US economy. This is why the dollar keeps rising and employment is at one of the lowest levels it has EVER been in the US. When you have a nation with the worker productivity, know-how, and tech abilities of the US all full employed it is the world leading juggernaut it has always been.

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Post time 2018-8-15 01:32:57 |Display all floors
UYA Post time: 2018-8-12 15:40
Why would China (or any country) need to all its land to be arable?
Where will people live?
China ...

Well China would need it to make most of its land arable to feed itself.

I hope you aren't asking why it is good to be able to feed yourself?

As for China's poverty rate... anyone even at minimum wage in the US has a higher standard of living and there are better social safety nets in the US. Only the 554,000 US homeless I would say are worse off and those people are usually all either lunatics, drug addicts, mentally retarded, or some combination of the 3. We don't keep them in cages or execute them like in China.

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Post time 2018-8-15 01:40:47 |Display all floors
UYA Post time: 2018-8-11 14:35
Long term with a lot of thought.
    That's what I call it a super smart strategy, after all. -nationalist 1


Long term with a lot of thought.
-nationalist 2


Except it isn't long term at all. And very little thought or consistency.

Was put in recently in panic of the growing bubble and debt that wasn't being controlled. They actually have tried to clamp down on this for at least 2 years and were having a hard time.

Now the government is also feeling the pinch of an economic slowdown and it doing the opposite of reeling in but is trying to spend to stimulate the economy and support the currency from falling further even as you are trying to claim they have some coherent long term plan to do the opposite... as you can see what you say makes little sense compared to the reality of what is happening which is very chaotic and back and forth between conservative fiscal policy and stimulus even as we speak.

Too late either way. 300%+ debt to GDP and the scale of the housing bubble relative the economy and shoddy quality of investments are not resolvable because it was all based on Ponzi scheme faulty valuation projections centered on realm estate. In a way it is not that people have been wrong for 10 years, but that China has continually kept the musical chairs gaming going and avoided a natural market collection for so long that when it happens it will be all the more catastrophic.

That this is coinciding with the trade war where China can loses 46% of its overall trade, its processing trade, and it's top source of revenue is a seriously compounding blow. The timing of this all is pretty much as bad as it can be for CHina and putting on a brave face will likely make it worse.

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