Author: UYA

China thinks long-term on financial stability — so should we   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2018-8-10 11:34:25 |Display all floors
UYA Post time: 2018-8-9 13:23
I don't think so.....
https://www.businessinsider.com/ ... ts-rocketing-2018-8
(Today)

China’s trade surplus with the United States swelled to a record in June as its overall exports grew at a solid pace, a result that could further inflame a bitter trade dispute with Washington.

But signs exporters were rushing shipments before tariffs went into effect in the first week of July suggest the spike in the surplus was a one-off, with analysts expecting a less favorable trade balance for China in coming months as duties on exports start to bite.

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Post time 2018-8-10 11:36:12 |Display all floors
UYA Post time: 2018-8-9 13:23
I don't think so.....
https://www.businessinsider.com/ ... ts-rocketing-2018-8
(Today)
don't think so.....
https://www.businessinsider.com/ ... ts-rocketing-2018-8

Exports for China has GROWN, since the trade war.
China can find other markets for their wares.


You don't even know why the exports have grown and you are mouthing off? Poor form.

Actually China's exports increase is BECAUSE OF THE US.

US has imported over 28 billion extra cheap parts and good from China to stockpile while we move our production out of China. Which btw is 46% of all chinese trade is processing trade of western companies for western markets and this includes most of the best high tech items like iphones.

So that 12% increase is only US companies anticipating most trade with China is about to end; going to disappear along with half your trade. You didn't find any new markets at all. poor panda bear!

Also the EU announced it was working towards zero tariffs with the US and that it would work together with the US counter Chinese illicit economic practices. Domestically Eu countries have also passed laws to block Chinese investment so you can believe you are going to find the going tougher in the EU as well as they inevitably follow America's lead in a very successful trade war so far.

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Post time 2018-8-10 12:51:27 |Display all floors
TruismStrike Post time: 2018-8-10 11:36
You don't even know why the exports have grown and you are mouthing off? Poor form.

Actuall ...

We are in the early stages of the trade war.
Will see who comes up on top.
You have your pick, I have mine.

May the best country win!

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Post time 2018-8-10 19:57:47 |Display all floors
UYA Post time: 2018-8-10 11:08
So the Chinese people who live and farm in the hills are "worse off" than the homeless in the Stat ...

Yes they are worse off.

At the end of 2012 China became an urbanised country: its urban population (52%) is now larger than its rural one, for the first time in history. Still the problem remains that the other 48% suffers from a dual system that privileges cities for both social benefits (pension, healthcare, schools) and economic opportunities. The consequences for social stability and poverty in China are quite severe: tens of thousands of farmers are forced out of their land every year by private contractors for the sake of cities’ expansion and the wealth gap between urban and rural inhabitants has never been so big.

Of course, the central government is aware of that and has been trying a whole range of policies to provide better social assistance (e.g. there is almost no pension system whatsoever) and higher wages to rural China.

In many villages, those who manage to sell everything they produce will only make about $1000/year. Earning that much means they don’t receive government support anymore and have to handle housing and other basic necessities on their own. At the same time, the soil in China yield less and less crops (particularly in arid provinces) and it’s often only enough to feed oneself properly. So, most of the younger generation leaves their villages to work in nearby cities and send money back to their parents. That remains the most common pension system in China.

Inequalities between cities and rural areas keep growing and even between rural areas themselves. Some have closer ties to cities and are designated partners for food production thanks to their proximity and better infrastructure (e.g. better roads equals better supply chain). On the other side, the government has clearly failed many provinces and stopped maintaining basic infrastructures, to begin with roads.  Lack of roads means fewer exchanges between villages and markets, and thus less income for these rural families. In such regions, inhabitants hardly make $200/year.


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Post time 2018-8-10 23:14:34 |Display all floors
UYA Post time: 2018-8-10 12:51
We are in the early stages of the trade war.
Will see who comes up on top.
You have your pick, I h ...
We are in the early stages of the trade war.


Are we? In the US we can't even tell; actually to quote one commentator, 'This is what a booming economy feels like." Indeed I have seen my own wages and # of job offers sky rocket in the last 9 months. It has a been a striking turn around from the Obama era stagnation.

Will see who comes up on top.


To most people that is already becoming pretty apparent. China is a giant debt bubble that takes a tiny pin to pop and has a host of problems it has been ignoring for too long.

"Out this morning: Two more indications that confidence is back for American businesses and workers. First, the latest Wells Fargo/Gallup Small Business Index registered record high optimism among small business owners, buoyed by high cash flow and positive views of current finances. Especially noteworthy, “35% of owners expect that the number of jobs at their business will increase over the next year, the second-highest reading on this measure in the history of the index.”

Additionally, the monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Department of Labor showed open jobs hitting 6.662 million in June. The quits rate, a measure of workers voluntarily leaving jobs for new opportunities, “held at the highest in this expansion which shows the confidence that job hoppers have in finding both a new job and higher wages elsewhere,” an investment officer noted.

Editorials we’ve been reading: In the past week, several papers have editorialized on the undeniable economic strength we’re seeing—strength ushered in by Republican policies.

Here are a few excerpts from around the country:

Chicago Tribune: This Is What a Booming Economy Feels Like

“Jobs mean everything to the nation’s sense of well-being. Opportunity offers fulfillment; paychecks create prosperity. Do you feel better about your prospects? You should. The economy is booming.



“But why can’t the growth continue, and accelerate? During much of the 2009-to-present expansion, with President Barack Obama in office, growth trundled along at about 2 percent. President Donald Trump took office saying he wanted to goose the sustained growth rate to 3 percent. He and the Republican-led Congress cut taxes to put money in the pockets of consumers and give businesses an incentive to invest and hire. Both are happening. The Trump administration also is focused on reducing regulatory red tape as an additional inducement to companies to bet on their future.

“Businesses are reacting to those policy changes: Their confidence leads to more investment, which adds jobs and spurs gross domestic product growth. On and on may it go.”

Boston Herald: So Far So Good on Economy

“Americans are spending their tax cuts and businesses are unrestrained by the burdensome regulations that hindered their growth potential for years. The president is pro-business to the core. There is no doubt about that and it is fair to speculate that his enthusiasm gooses the morale of those in business and finance.”

Carteret County News-Times: The Economy Rolls

“We dismiss the feeling that we should feel sorry for Democrats who simply can’t accept reality—really good economic news—because they won’t admit that the guy they didn’t vote for is getting something right.”


Investor’s Business Daily: Trump’s Supply-Side Tax Cuts, Deregulation Vindicated by Big GDP Jump

“And remember this: Business investment grew at a 7.3% annual pace for the quarter, in large part due to corporate tax cuts that have made it profitable for businesses to invest in the U.S. again. Consumer spending, likewise, rose 4% as consumers also had more money in their pockets from tax cuts.”

It is sad when the other side doesn't realize they have already lost. China's currency and stock markets are in the sh1tter. And your exports are about to start declining massively as everyone leaves China. Chinese consumer confidence is already at rock bottom and there is a rising sense of panic and that Xi has overplayed his hand. And the debt/housing bubble hasn't even popped yet. This is when you should really quit while you are ahead but then again I for one want to see this to its ultimate conclusion. Don't let China give any concession, throw out of the economy and make it so they can never steal technology again.

Saving this text in case mods censor it again.

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Post time 2018-8-11 02:10:58 |Display all floors
Boston101 Post time: 2018-8-10 19:57
Yes they are worse off.

Interesting stats...
where did you get this?
About arable land:
https://bbs.chinadaily.com.cn/thread-1893127-1-1.html

I would disagree with you about a farmer in China is worse off than homeless in the States.
For me....
I rather farm and be fed, than living off the streets.

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Post time 2018-8-11 02:45:37 |Display all floors
UYA Post time: 2018-8-11 02:10
Interesting stats...
where did you get this?
About arable land:

Sure, China can irrigate a small amount of land but the country is just too large to adequately irrigate all.

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