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sfphoto Post time: 2017-10-5 23:31
I am sure China will be affected but I am not sure if China will be the "biggest" loser. China has ...
I note that you write like a military conflict (to degree of war) in Korean Peninsula would be completely between USA and DPRK (and naturally South Korea).
Personally I hope that China would stay neutral, but I don't expect it. However, regardless of what arrangements there are on paper or otherwise between China and DPRK, I think it's 50/50 whether it would side with DPRK or USA. I mean the people that matter, your leaders.
If China let's USA and DPRK sort it out, there is only one way that it will end, and that is complete annihilation of DPRK leadership. What will happen after that (no matter how much global destruction there have been), is that USA and ROK troops will march to Yalu river and start camping. Then they'd rebuild the country and make trillions in progress. China would get part of that.
Unless, of course, China initiates to move its own troops to Korea, even after missing out the battle. That would be political suicide for China in global arena.
The other scenario, where China takes a side with either party earlier in the war isn't necessarily much better. China would then be active participant in the war.
Should China storm to help DPRK, it would again be in international dead-end, because DPRK's aggression (whether they'd be actions or reactions) would include such methods that international community would not tolerate. They'd use artillery against South Korean's civilian population and cities, not to mention possibly nuclear or chemical weapons. China would be held resposibly for that alongside DPRK. Also should the North win, China would not gain anything. It would just be left resposible for rebuilding the south that is in ruins by then - certainly DPRK will not have means to do it.
On the other hand, if China will help US to a quicker victory, the financial crisis that you expect will not be very big and will not hurt US-China relations, quite the opposite. Also more than likely, Chinese forces will remain in northern Korea even after the war is over and Korea is united under Seoul. Then it could be China that gets to make trillions by rebuilding the country. I think that in case of war, this is the best scenario - though the same end result could be achieved without any war.