Views: 934|Replies: 8

Little for US to gain from a trade war [Copy link] 中文

Rank: 9Rank: 9Rank: 9

Post time 2017-1-22 01:45:07 |Display all floors
Will there be a trade war between the world's two largest trading powers? Anxiety is spreading among business people around the world as the Trump administration takes office in the United States, with many saying a showdown with China is unavoidable and imminent.
In his inauguration speech on Friday, Donald Trump signaled no retreat from his populist agenda on trade, immigration, and on scaling  ...

--------Click here for more information--------

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 3Rank: 3

Post time 2017-1-22 01:45:08 |Display all floors
The US is proposing something China and other Countries have been doing for decades, taxing imports into their Country. If you purchase an American car in China, you will pay a sizable increase over the same car that is sold in the US. US car makers have moved their operations to China in order to build that car in China , with Chinese workers, in order not to pay the tax. If you go into a store in China that sells US imports, you will pay ten times the price as in the US. This is again because China taxes that import.

It is not only acceptable the US starts taxing products that are made in China and come to the US. This will foster competition with products made in the US and other Countries. In the end, this will hurt China more than the US.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 3Rank: 3

Post time 2017-1-22 01:45:18 |Display all floors
The US is proposing something China and other Countries have been doing for decades, taxing imports into their Country. If you purchase an American car in China, you will pay a sizable increase over the same car that is sold in the US. US car makers have moved their operations to China in order to build that car in China , with Chinese workers, in order not to pay the tax. If you go into a store in China that sells US imports, you will pay ten times the price as in the US. This is again because China taxes that import.

It is not only acceptable the US starts taxing products that are made in China and come to the US. This will foster competition with products made in the US and other Countries. In the end, this will hurt China more than the US.

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 3Rank: 3

Post time 2017-1-22 02:33:42 |Display all floors
western newspapers/economists are afraid from any in-calculated move for a fragile world economy after the mess of US done in 2008 ,I think this is  a last shot ! for the US administration who have no clue how to solve its economy problems since Bush crazy plot to re-occupy the world ? starting from Iraq !, the IQ of US presidents are declining with too much economy "Nobel" prize winners ?,China can take counter measures that limit the impact of a "trade war " being the largest world exporter/manufacturer ..US cannot,it is for me a petty that Chinese hard working people/government  has to listen to spoiled so called "world power" that print dollars out of thin air still demanding more from others  .

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2017-1-22 11:51:55 |Display all floors
Not only will the US gain little from a trade war it will lose heaps more.

Even the PIIE, a more prestigious and authoritative US think-tank than Navarro and his ilk of the death-by-china blue film which has been roundly savaged by US critics themselves, has concluded in the event of a limited trade war with China and Mexico let alone the other countries like Germany and Korea which have run trade surpluses, the US will lose a heck lot more jobs and pronto. The PIIE has even constructed an interactive US state map which depicts how extensive will be the fallout. California alone could lose 640,000 jobs by 2019. The other states will be no better off and that's just in round one.

Furthermore, in a study by another concern, it was found only 5% of young americans enroll for vocational courses so where is Trump and company going to find the skilled workers to fill the manufacturing jobs to be presumably created from a trade war? That study also concluded the present US vocational skills development institutions are poorly run and badly equipped while highly unmotivated students are taught by underpaid and sub-skilled teachers on courses that bear little employability; that was why in one area they had attempted to copy the German vocational system - but failed. One must note any improvement will take years; by that time, a trade war would have nullified all benefits to no one's benefit including what's left of US interests.

In summary if Trump and company triggers a trade war, more US workers from the ranks of those with less education and lower income who currently have jobs will lose their jobs from being more vulnerable to the shocks of a trade war. He and his ilk better go back to the drawing board again.

read on:

If Trump Starts a Trade War, California Could Lose 640,000 Jobs
ref: https://piie.com/commentary/op-e ... ld-lose-640000-jobs
Los Angeles Times October 19, 2016

Los Angeles would be the worst affected county in America, losing 176,000 jobs by 2019, if Donald Trump (link is external) is elected president and fulfills his campaign pledge to unleash trade wars with China and Mexico. Another 60,000 jobs would be lost in Orange County. California as a whole could see 640,000 jobs disappear, more than 4 percent of private sector employment. And this is just a small taste of what might happen nationally—according to a Peterson Institute model for a scenario in which the United States imposes a 45 percent tariff on China and a 35 percent tariff on Mexico, and they respond in kind.

Trade issues have seldom reached the top of the US political agenda. For decades, a consensus in favor of an open US-led trade system held. But the 2016 election has marked a departure from this pattern. Both major candidates oppose the Trans-Pacific Partnership (link is external) (TPP), the single major trade initiative under consideration. This opposition is regrettable: TPP would deliver significant gains to the US economy, and its failure would be a blow to both the US economy and US standing in Asia.

But Trump goes much farther than Hillary Clinton, promising punitive tariffs on China and Mexico, at times advocating firm-specific tariffs (which are historically unprecedented and probably unconstitutional), talking about abrogating “disastrous” free trade agreements, and even considering withdrawing from the World Trade Organization (link is external). That last move, if implemented, could undo 70 years of economic diplomacy.

The sobering reality is that legal experts believe that under a variety of statutes, the president has considerable executive authority to do these things. Even if Trump were ultimately stymied by Congress or the courts, that process would be time-consuming, giving him ample opportunity to wreak havoc.

Capital goods industries would be hardest hit. The trade shock would then propagate throughout the economy, also destroying jobs in sectors such as retail, restaurants, and temporary employment agencies. Millions of jobs that appear unconnected to international trade—many of them filled by lower-skilled and lower-wage workers—would be at risk.

Clinton’s policies amount to a fender bender. Trump’s would be a head-on collision.

The Peterson Institute forecast—which used conventional economic models based on national income, employment and other macroeconomic variables, as well as models capturing the linkages among more than 300 sectors down to the county level—indicates that the worst year would be 2019. At that point, the economy would slowly begin recovering from the shock. Hiring would subsequently pick up, but there is no guarantee that displaced workers would be reemployed at their previous pay levels.

Washington state would be hardest hit, experiencing a loss of private sector employment of more than 5 percent. However, a broad array of states, including a number of so-called battleground states, would suffer employment declines of more than 4 percent. In California, the job losses would not be limited to Southern California: Silicon Valley would take a major hit, with Santa Clara County losing 64,000 jobs, or more than 7 percent of private employment, for example.

China and Mexico might decide to retaliate in ways other than imposing tariffs, but even in scenarios in which retaliation is limited, Southern California could be hurt. For instance, if China were to instruct its state-owned enterprises to stop buying US business services, the state could lose nearly 14,000 jobs, with nearly 6,000 of those losses occurring in Los Angeles and Orange counties alone. The state and region would experience additional losses if China decided to stop buying US aircraft.

There’s a reason liberalizing international trade has been the policy of the United States for the last 70 years. The last time the United States enacted protectionist trade policies, cutting itself off from the rest of the world, that action worsened the Great Depression. While Clinton’s opposition to the TPP will cost America potential income gains and will undermine US leadership in Asia, Trump’s proposals could actually sink the US economy. Clinton’s policies amount to a fender bender. Trump’s would be a head-on collision.

When asked about trade wars, Trump once insouciantly replied, “Who the hell cares?” In these trade wars, American causalities will be numerous and disproportionately drawn from the ranks of lower-income citizens.

1/2

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2017-1-22 11:52:16 |Display all floors
2/2

How Donald Trump Could Terminate that “Job-killer” KORUS
And cost millions of Americans their jobs in the process
September 20, 2016

download: interactive map on Private Sector Job Loss By US State

https://piie.com/blogs/north-kor ... te-job-killer-korus

https://piie.com/publications/pi ... esidential-campaign

... Trump has advocated punitive sanctions on Mexico and China, at times advocating firm-specific tariffs (which are historically unprecedented, illegal, and probably unconstitutional), has talked about abrogating “disastrous” free trade agreements (including that “job-killing” KORUS agreement, which along with NAFTA, he seems to regard with particular ire), and even talking about withdrawing from the WTO which could undo 80 years of economic diplomacy and plunge the US back into the Smoot-Hawley world of the 1930s. When asked about trade wars, he insouciantly replied “who the hell cares about a trade war?”

"In this trade war, the American casualties would be drawn disproportionately from the ranks of less-educated, low-income workers, those most vulnerable to this kind of shock."

By PIIE's own-admitted conservative assessment alone, "We find that in a full trade war where we impose tariffs on Mexico and China and they respond symmetrically, the economy slumps. (The interactive map above forecasts results from this scenario in 2019.) The hardest hit sectors are mostly in capital goods, but the decline in trade and investment is strongly propagated to the rest of the economy, and the biggest job losses in absolute terms are in so-called “non-traded sectors” such as retail sales, restaurants, and employment agencies.

In this trade war, the American casualties would be drawn disproportionately from the ranks of less-educated, low-income workers, those most vulnerable to this kind of shock. The worst hit state would be Washington, with a fall of private sector employment for more than 5 percent relative to baseline. A broad array of states including a number of so-called battleground states (including, ironically, Indiana, home of Trump running mate Mike Pence) would suffer employment declines of more than 4 percent. Los Angeles would be the worst affected county in America (176,000 jobs lost) followed by Cook county Illinois (Chicago) (91,000), and Harris county Texas (Houston) (89,000).

Other less populous counties across America are hit with even more severe loss losses, with 29 counties suffering employment losses of 7 percent or more. Santa Clara county California loses 64,000 jobs or 7.6 percent private employment, for example. The detailed results are available on the Peterson Institute website—you can look up your own home county and see how it might fare under various trade war scenarios.

In addition to the symmetric full trade war, we also examine other possibilities. What might happen if, instead of applying an across-the-board tariff on American exports China responded by targeting individual sectors such as aircraft, business services, or soybeans?

We find that in this trade war the iPhone might be China’s secret weapon: while Chinese value-added is minimal (and hence the self-inflicted harm might be low) by intervening in the supply chains of US firms, China could make US consumers howl. Maybe that might stop President Trump.

Hillary Clinton’s trade policies are sub-optimal. Sinking TPP is not good for the US (or South Korea) either economically or strategically. But Donald Trump’s casual invocation of “trade wars” is reckless and dangerous, threatening the livelihoods of millions of Americans.

PIIE received a comment on the article:

Jan Smith
September 21, 2016 7:40 PM

"A trade war would be a major escalation of the ongoing thrift race among sovereign states, dangerous mostly because of its longer-term effects: (a) a marked increase in distrust and antagonism among the sovereigns; (b) accelerated slowdown in global economic growth.  Even now, the "second globalization" is in dangerous territory, strikingly similar to the "first globalization" around 1900.  

So perhaps the critical question is whether Trump is an idiosyncratic psychopath or just another symptom of growing international conflict. Is the Republican Party mutating into some sort of neo-fascist monstrosity?  If not this Trump in this election, another Trump in four more years? "

Use magic tools Report

Rank: 8Rank: 8

Post time 2017-1-22 12:54:14 |Display all floors
Majority of US citizens do not know what their president should and must do for them. All they dream of is to switch about and make US great overnight. Those who knew the impact had gone abroad. US is the richest nation in the world. It sells military hardware which is never accounted for its revenue. US owes the world but the world dare not request for US to pay. This is the order of the jungle. Power dictates order.

Use magic tools Report

You can't reply post until you log in Log in | register

BACK TO THE TOP
Contact us:Tel: (86)010-84883548, Email: blog@chinadaily.com.cn
Blog announcement:| We reserve the right, and you authorize us, to use content, including words, photos and videos, which you provide to our blog
platform, for non-profit purposes on China Daily media, comprising newspaper, website, iPad and other social media accounts.