Author: tenderloin

How can China win the trade war against Racist Trump   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2017-2-22 18:04:56 |Display all floors
fatdragon Post time: 2017-2-22 10:53
You make these accusations towards China but have you ever realised that the American government a ...

Subsidies were in a form of tax breaks. This is quite different than propping up an industry for dumping (i.e.  predatory pricing), which China has done with steel, solar panels (both create from technology stolen from the US), silk (in the Indian markets), shrimp, rubber, ...

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Post time 2017-2-23 07:04:36 |Display all floors
Boston101 Post time: 2017-2-22 18:04
Subsidies were in a form of tax breaks. This is quite different than propping up an industry for d ...

Err No. It all comes down to the bottom line on the balance sheet. Chinese manufacturers commonly get screwed down to 1% profit margins - there is a reason why Chinese workers barely get subsistent wages and often have poor safety at work. In return so that Americans can have a better standard of living or Trump can increase taxation on imports to make up the deficits in public spending.
(mostly harmless)

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Post time 2017-2-23 12:05:48 |Display all floors
1/n

A: It looks like all can heave a sigh of relief he has eased tensions and nipped problems in the buds.

B: Exactly who were you with last night? Had too swell a time? Still asleep? Suffer no illusion you can put your worst case scenario manual away. Through the long lens of history, it's premature.

A: Why are you so lugubrious on the prospects for continued world peace and prosperity?

B: Shake one out of the fortune sticks now. Read to me what it says.

A: Err, it says, " Lust, Caution" ?

B: Wrong stick. Try another one.

A: Oh, ok. "Be careful of eagle in tiger in wolf in sheepskin."

B: Ah, let's interpret it delicately. It says he thinks his ruse with easing tensions has worked and he can now spring a surprise and catch everyone off-guard so that at everyone's moment of weakness and confusion, he can profusely confuse issues and swipe the cards on the deck before all come to their senses.

A: Hmm, you been near a poker table lately?

B: I dunno how to gamble.

A: Ok, where were we? It's the US trade deficit.

B: Then how come he has only been saying it's the China, Germany, Japan et al trade surplus? See the distinction? Blaming others and ignoring the elephant at the tip of his own nose.

A: Must have been a rather big nose, yes?

B: It's easy. Let's for argument purpose only take the US and China. The US should save more from its military budget and spend more on its infrastructure, and China should buy more US goods and enterprises, and save more on its currency shoring.

A: But the US won't sell to China the things China wants, namely technology and enterprises. That's hard cash for IP, you notice lately?

B: Then the US should stop complaining, shouldn't it? In the first place, it is already over-militarized all over the world so how does that really help ease tensions besides help revive US manufacturing in consumer goods and not military equipment used to kill consumers instead who want to buy US goods? The bottom-line is this:  the US doesn’t save enough where it should and it won’t allow China to buy enough of what she wants and then it blames China for its vice-grip, and says it wants fair trade? Oh my, such finesse.

A: Then how can he solve the problems he has been yakking about even before becoming ovalized?  

B: One, take more ovaltine. Chocolate is good for a loving feeling; he's too martial between those ears.

A: (eyes pop, brows rise half a centimeter)

B: Two, only twits twitter. Big issues require careful end-to-end thinking and a candid honest depoliticized understanding of the dynamics of interests and events. Don't let the world think he is only capable of 140 characters of thought at any one time.

A: (scratches jaw, eyes examine fingernails)

B: Three, review his own student notes. What has he said so far? 壹, open bargaining with her by immediately declaring her a currency manipulator; 貳, twist her arm on intellectual property and proprietary technology; 參, end her export subsidies and lax labor; and 肆, lower tax, erase deficit and maintain power to contain maritime adventurism.

.....



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Post time 2017-2-23 15:07:32 |Display all floors
then , congratulations , you will have enemies  all over the world . I think you must be proud of it .

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Post time 2017-2-23 21:03:01 |Display all floors
fatdragon Post time: 2017-2-23 07:04
Err No. It all comes down to the bottom line on the balance sheet. Chinese manufacturers commonly  ...

Increase tax on imports? That in turn creates more opportunities within the States for the States.

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Post time 2017-2-23 21:35:56 |Display all floors
2/n

A: Let's take the first case. Currency manipulation.

B: Instead of tarring China, he should interrogate his own people like Shelton whether they have led him astray against facts and good sense.  First, China has kept the yuan from falling by burning one third of her dollar reserves; that's over a trillion US dollars. In fact she has not been buying that forex in the market for the past six quarters in order to contain her current account surplus.

Second, the US dollar has appreciated; if Yellen raises the US interest rate and China free-floats her currency, the yuan will fall. This will make her goods cheaper to the US while making US goods more expensive to her. Isn't that the opposite of he wants or is he actually trying to demonize China at the expense of the american people?

A: I see where you're coming from. His folks are slyly using old trends of ten years ago to justify labeling China a currency manipulator today when China's daily 2% band has actually strengthened the yuan against what a free float exchange rate would dictate besides stabilizing wild market fluctuations that would have spiked speculation.

B: His people have schemed to say China has artificially depressed the yuan below its value. Now can anyone tell me who can determine precisely what the value of any currency in the world should be at any one time in order to say it has been undervalued? If there is such a demigod, please sign me up for the scheme. And yes, i like gunmetal silver for the ferrari, please.

A: You have clarified the case. But i can see a counterpoint that says the US will still blame China even when she makes her imports more costly whenever she keeps her yuan high. She will next be blamed for trying to buy more US assets with less yuan. It seems to the US it's "heads i win, tails you lose"!

B: And they have the nerve to shell the rules-based trading system of the world when they are the ones dictating how it should be argued whenever not to US advantage. Seeing through such attempts at applying slanted monetary pressures, who in the world can be faulted for not subscribing to what they may be coding next, say a new universal monetary regime?

A: There is something else he may ask countries like China to do. Namely financial reforms such as bank recapitalization and social safety nets to wean them off external demand.

B: And isn't China already doing those? But she has to do them gingerly because unlike economies such as the US, she has to shift and transform her SOEs carefully so as not to cause employment rifts that will weaken her banks and workers social safety.

Meanwhile, looking at how engorged in labor debts are the US steel concerns that are causing their steel prices to spike until they can conveniently say steel imports are at dumped prices, it would be specious of them to try and denigrate the reforms being taken at the right pace, for that matter supply excuses for anti-dumping measures. No? Yes? Maybe?

A: Ok, shall we wrap up the other three points now?

B: (phone rings, cups hand over mouth) Err someone wants to meet me tonight. How about tomorrow (if i survive)?

A: It wouldn't by any chance be about an old loose door banging in the wind of a hurricane, would it?

B: (feigned look of surprise). Now whatever gave you that corny idea?

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Post time 2017-2-24 08:13:39 |Display all floors
Boston101 Post time: 2017-2-23 21:03
Increase tax on imports? That in turn creates more opportunities within the States for the States. ...

And puts up the cost of living and reduces the standard of living for the poor and the lower paid - no shortage of them in the USA at the moment. Adding to their burden is not going to help matters.
(mostly harmless)

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