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Will Trump start a trade war against China? [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2016-11-14 09:39:50 |Display all floors
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In an interview with Bloomberg Television Friday, when questioned as to whether US President-elect Donald Trump will formally declare China a currency manipulator, Judy Shelton, one of Trump's economic advisers, said "he is someone going to carry through on what he says."
After the election, Trump began to soften his tone on a string of issues he campaigned on, for example, he hailed the alliances with Japan and South Korea, with no mention of asking the two countries to pay more to support US stationed troops there. But at this moment Shelton claimed Trump would follow through with his pledge to declare China a currency manipulator. What does this mean? Trump is not obstinate with regard to ties with China. Making things difficult for China politically will do him no good. Almost all experts on US-China trade believe that Trump's declaration on the bilateral economy is unprofessional. The yuan's inclusion in the SDR basket has attested to the marketization of China's exchange rate. Trump's accusations against China for currency manipulation cannot hold water. If he does list China as a currency manipulator and slap steep tariffs on Chinese imports, China will take countermeasures.
Declaring China a "currency manipulator" will increase the pressure on appreciation of the yuan. It runs counter to the trend of shorting the yuan in the international financial market. However, China's reputation will be affected, and the trade atmosphere between China and the US will become more tense.
To impose a 45 percent tariff on imports from China is merely campaign rhetoric. The greatest authority a US president has is to impose tariffs of up to 15 percent for 150 days on all imported goods and the limit can only be broken on the condition that the country is declared to be in a state of emergency. Other than that, a US president can only demand a tariff increase on individual commodities.
Not long after Barack Obama took office, US trade and commerce authorities announced a 35 percent import tariff on Chinese tires. In response, China took retaliatory steps of imposing tariffs on US chicken and automotive products. Both China and the US suffered losses as a result. From then on, the Obama administration waged no trade war against China. If Trump imposes a 45 percent tariff on Chinese imports, China-US trade will be paralyzed.
China will take a tit-for-tat approach then. A batch of Boeing orders will be replaced by Airbus. US auto and iPhone sales in China will suffer a setback, and US soybean and maize imports will be halted. China can also limit the number of Chinese students studying in the US.   
Trump as a shrewd businessman will not be so naïve. None of the previous presidents were bold enough to launch an all-out trade war against China. They all opted for a cautious line since it's most consistent with the overall interests of the US, and it's most acceptable to US society.
Trump cannot change the pattern of interests between China and the US. The gigantic China-US trade is based on mutual benefits and a win-win situation. Even as president, Trump can exert limited influence on it.
If Trump wrecks Sino-US trade, a number of US industries will be impaired. Finally the new president will be condemned for his recklessness, ignorance and incompetence and bear all the consequences. We are very suspicious the trade war scenario is a trap set up by some American media to trip up the new president.(the Global Times)

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Post time 2016-11-14 11:26:02 |Display all floors
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Post time 2016-11-14 16:51:37 |Display all floors
Free trade is not a perfect solution to fair trade.  Fair trade requires that the "profits" of the workers be given equal weight as the profits of the owners of factories and farms.  Free trade, at present, favors the owners of multinational corporations over the workers of each and every country.  Products are sold to the country with the ability to pay the highest prices, while labor is bought from the countries with the lowest wages.  Economists take the public to be fools.  Globalism and free trade is UNFAIR TRADE to the workers of every country.  Tariffs are a necessity to neutralize the bias of globalism and free trade favoring the MNC's.  There is no reason why Free Trade and Fair Tariffs cannot coexist.  It is a myth that one excludes the other.  You cannot keep aggrandizing the multinational corporations and their compradors in every country while impoverishing the workers by either paying them the lowest wages in the world (literally) or eliminating their jobs (historically proven practice).  Trump's pledge to declare China a currency manipulator is the only means he has to force China to negotiate with America on a list of products and services that the US absolutely needs to put tariffs on in order to bring back jobs, and this will have to be at the miniumum, steel and alumnum.  China, on the other hand, may need to levy tariffs on cars and high tech equipment in order to grow her own industries in these areas.  Tariffs cannot be waived across the board in the name of Free Trade, because Free Trade without allowing for tariffs on specific products and services is no longer Fair Trade, but Fraudulent Trade, stealing from Peter (workers) to pay Paul (capitalists), not just in America, but also in China, and every country for that matter.

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Post time 2016-11-14 16:54:31 |Display all floors
This will be fun

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Post time 2016-11-14 18:17:30 |Display all floors
IN REAL LIFE, TARIFFS ARE NECESSARY TO PROTECT DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES.  TRUMP WILL HAVE NONE OF THE GLOBALIST NONSENSE ABOUT THE VIRTUES OF FREE TRADE WHEN MILLIONS OF AMERICANS HAVE LOST THEIR JOBS.  CHINA ALSO NEEDS TARIFFS TO PROTECT THE JOBS OF MILLIONS OF CHINESE WORKERS, AND THE FACTORIES THAT HIRE THEM, FROM OVERWHELMING FOREIGN COMPETITION.  THE ART OF THE DEAL IS THIS - WHICH TARIFFS WILL AMERICA IMPOSE ON ALL FOREIGN IMPORTS, IN EXCHANGE FOR WHICH TARIFFS CHINA WILL IMPOSE ON U.S. IMPORTS?  BOTH ARE NECESSARY, BUT THE DEAL REVOLVES AROUND WHICH PRODUCTS WILL EACH IMPOSE TARIFFS ON, SUCH THAT THE NET EFFECT ON BOTH COUNTRIES IS A POSITIVE ONE.

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Post time 2016-11-14 18:20:13 |Display all floors
XI IS RIGHT TO CALL TRUMP AT THIS JUNCTURE, BEFORE TRUMP SOLIDIFIES HIS STANCE IN RELATION TO TRADING WITH CHINA.  COOPERATION IS INDEED THE ONLY WAY FORWARD.  BUT COOPERATION DOES NOT EXCLUDE IMPOSING TARIFFS ON EACH OTHER.  IN FACT, COOPERATION IS NEEDED TO DECIDE WHICH TARIFFS EACH SIDE WILL IMPOSE ON THE OTHER SIDE.

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Post time 2016-11-14 19:30:39 |Display all floors
abcfirst Post time: 2016-11-14 18:20
XI IS RIGHT TO CALL TRUMP AT THIS JUNCTURE, BEFORE TRUMP SOLIDIFIES HIS STANCE IN RELATION TO TRADIN ...

China want to start a war with America

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