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Is a baby boom coming for China?   [Copy link] 中文

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Post time 2015-10-29 20:49:10 |Display all floors
China will allow all couples to have two children, abandoning its decades-long one-child policy, according to a communique issued Thursday by the Communist Party of China (CPC).
A widely anticipated change to China's one-child policy unveiled today has led to speculation over whether it will lead to a baby boom. What do you think?

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Post time 2015-10-29 21:10:22 |Display all floors
It's about time too.

The world needs more of us!

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Post time 2015-10-29 22:19:20 |Display all floors

Population Growth => Cheap Labour => Exploitation => Social Unrest

This post was edited by cestmoi at 2015-10-29 22:28

WHY?

This is a big mistake in a long line of mistakes in China's history.

PRC China's first priority is to lift the rest its population out of poverty, about 500 million last I read.

PRC China has already created an immense population pressure. People are fleeing from the oppressive population pressure by way of emigration to other countries to avoid the pressure to conform to the mindnumbing sameness. This same pressure stifles ilateral thinking, nnovation, thinking outside the box and realizing one's potential, something you cannot do with the population looking over your shoulder,  to copy and stampede over you just to get ahead.

Scarce resource has to be distributed and resource gets more scarce by the day. Here is a list, by no means complete:
  •     clean air to breathe;
  •     clean potable water to drink,
  •     nutritious food that nourishes both body and brain ( you need a lot of protein for brain development),
  •     value-added jobs ( by which I mean jobs with training and career path and not dead end jobs ),
  •     demand on electricity (burn more coal?),
  •     educationat all levels (send your children to Harvard and ale?),
  •     transport, clothing,
  • ... etc.

Polluton and over-population has already led to climate change, parts of the world will become uninhabitable in another generation (25 years),the Persian Gulf is already hostile to human life forms for parts of the day. Rising sea level will errode coastal cities, including Shanghai. Other species of lifeforms are dying off at an accelerated rate, the food chain is breaking down ( when was the last time you saw a Baiji, the Yangtze Dolphin?)

Global rise in temperature and humidity will lead to heat-related deaths, worse still, it will increase the outbreaks and frequency of epidemics.

Breeding leads to cheap labor, you can see that in USofA exploiting the cheap Hispanic labor. PRC China does not need cheap labor working at a production line assembling cheaper widgets for export.

The limit of increase in productivity using cheap labour has long since been reached in China.

You are just condemning these people to a monotonous, unfulfilled existence. Why compete at the lowest common denominator? Cheap human labour does not increase productivity after a certain point.

China needs smart, skilled labour. China needs engineers to design and build the next generation of robots for the production lines and digitize the workplace to increase productivity, something you cannot do with mindless population increase for cheap labour.  

Where is the room for growth? Are you expecting massive emigration, legal or otherwise, to other countries and continents?




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Post time 2015-10-29 22:38:03 |Display all floors
so who will pay for the mistakes of the past in which millions of people are forced to suffer?


I've made my living, Mr. Thompson, in large part as a gambler. Some days I make twenty bets, some days I make none. There are weeks, sometimes months, in fact, when I don't make any bet at all because ...

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Post time 2015-10-29 23:08:12 |Display all floors
Danone, Nestle and other baby food makers stock reacted positively on the news.

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Post time 2015-10-30 01:24:55 |Display all floors
This post was edited by cestmoi at 2015-10-30 01:43

The trick to stimulating growth by consumption:
  • increase real disposable income, disposable means the money left over after paying all your bills and after saving some for retirement, savings around 10% of gross income is adequate;
  • a solid, transparent, well-run government-inspired pension fund so that the people know they will have income to live off when they retire, the USAnians social security ( the Rooseveltian "generational handshake" ) is an example
  • service sector that appeals to people and tha people need e.g. medcial care, internet and mobile phone services, internal tourism, entertainment industries e.g. movies
  • low inerest rate environment, again you can use USofA as an example, you might like to adapt though
  • quality education as a service, create more innovative STEM graduates who think outside the box
  • a mature population feeling positive and secure about their futures, you can adapt the fear-and-greed index for local use

The limit of productivity increase and consumption through low cost labour has long since been reached for China!

Think outside the box.

Be innovative.



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Post time 2015-10-30 06:45:14 |Display all floors
2 children may not be affordable for the vast majority of couples. See what happens.

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