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Share China-UK economic relations and RMB internationalisation
2014-7-15 15:31
TV interview with me on China CCTV News about Chinese Prime Minister's visit to the UK - particular focus on internationalisation of RMB http://english.cntv.cn/2014/06/20/VIDE1403256725540259.shtml
1912 views|1 comments Popularity 2
Share New data shows China's economy growth
2014-7-15 15:23
New data shows China's economy grew almost 5 times as fast as the US in the last year . The publication of the latest US GDP data casts a clear light on the false claim the US economy is recovering strongly and China faces 'crisis'. The data shows that in the last year, from the 1st quarter of 2013 to 1st quarter 2014, China's economy grew by 7.4% and the US economy by 1.5% – see Figure 1. Even given the effect of the bad weather on the US economy in the 1st quarter, the much greater growth ...
3459 views|3 comments Popularity 3
Share The dangers of exaggerating RMB internationalisation
2014-7-15 15:19
RMB ‘internationalization’ is one of the most discussed issues in China’s economic policy. But many claims regarding the extent of RMB internationalization are greatly exaggerated and the practical proposal to attempt to achieve it, capital account convertibility of the RMB, is extremely dangerous for China’s economic and social stability. To eliminate false estimates and policies, it is, therefore, necessary first to accurately establish the facts regarding the real international role of t ...
1569 views|0 comments
Share The long term deceleration of the US economy
2014-6-17 11:00
his chart shows the dominant long term trend in the US economy - gradual deceleration. A 20 year moving average is used to eliminate all cyclical or short term trends. The deceleration from 4.4% in 1969, to 4.1% in 1978, to 3.5% in 2002, to 2.5% in the first quarter of 2014 is clear. The temporary recovery in the late 1990s and beginning of the 21st century proved unsustainable and was followed by a sharper fall. This trend shows that the most enduring feature of the US economy, which must b ...
2033 views|0 comments Popularity 2
Share Why China's stimulus was so much more effective than the US - Stephen Roach
2014-6-17 10:58
"From late 2008 to May 2014, the Fed’s balance sheet increased by a total of $3.4 trillion, well in excess of the $2.6 trillion increase in nominal GDP over the same period. This is hardly “Mission accomplished,” as QE supporters claim. Every dollar of QE generated only 76 cents of nominal GDP. "Unlike the United States, which relied largely on its central bank’s efforts to cushion the crisis and foster recovery, China deployed a CN¥4 trillion fiscal stimulus (about 12% of its 2008 GDP) ...
1669 views|0 comments
Share Market romanticism' is as damaging in China as everywhere else
2014-5-14 10:58
China is by now strong enough to deal with any external threat to its development. Only major internal errors can block its progress. One well known such threat is any attempt to return to an administered, as opposed to a ‘socialist market’economy. However negative financial events – increases in interbank lending rates, falls in share prices, much higher bond yields than in other major economies, falls in manufacturing and service sector PMIs - highlight another danger, that of ‘market ...
2313 views|2 comments Popularity 4
Share China is now the world's main trade locomotive
2014-4-29 17:07
China has overtaken the United States to become the world's largest goods trading nation. Indeed, since the beginning of the international financial crisis, increases in China's merchandise trade have been larger than those of the United States, EU and Japan combined. Even last year, well after recovery from the trough of the "Great Recession," China's trade increase was bigger than that of any other economic centre. In particular China's increase in imports remained larger than the combined t ...
1967 views|2 comments Popularity 4
Share 'Market romanticism' is as damaging in China as everywhere else
2014-2-11 09:37
China is by now strong enough to deal with any external threat to its development. Only major internal errors can block its progress. One well known such threat is any attempt to return to an administered, as opposed to a ‘socialist market’, economy. However negative financial events – increases in interbank lending rates, falls in share prices, much higher bond yields than in other major economies, falls in manufacturing and service sector PMIs - highlight another danger, that of ‘market r ...
2156 views|1 comments Popularity 2
Share Why China will grow rich before it grows old
2014-1-7 09:33
The announcement of the relaxation of China's one child policy created great discussion in China and internationally. But its significance was widely misunderstood. Contrary to myth, the increase in China's labor supply plays little role in China's rapid economic growth. In reality, 96 percent of China's economic growth comes from factors other than a rising labour supply. Therefore, there is no reason why China's economy should slow significantly because China's working age popul ...
10207 views|9 comments Popularity 7
Share China accounts for 100% of the reduction in the number of the world's people liv
2013-11-29 15:33
In 2010 Professor Danny Quah , of the London School of Economics, noted: 'In the last 3 decades, China alone has lifted morepeople out of extreme poverty than the rest of the world combined. Indeed, China’s($1/day) poverty reduction of 627 million from 1981 to 2005 exceeds the total globaleconomy’s decline in its extremely poor from 1.9 billion to 1.4 billion over the sameperiod.' The aim of this article is to analyse the situation taking data published three yea ...
3683 views|1 comments Popularity 1
JOHN-ROSS

Senior Fellow of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China.

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    • China-UK economic relations and RMB internationalisation 2016-1-9 17:47

      I am interested in your talking.

    • New data shows China's economy growth 2014-8-15 06:07

      Viewing GDP as a measure of ability to pay debt is interesting in those countries that have government and private debts exceeding their ability to pay. When asked in 2010 why those countries go into debt, they said, ’To make it happen faster,’ I asked what IT they meant and none would say, so I gradually surmised they meant their goals of building their technologies their way. Now those countries, including US, Canada, EU, UK, Argentina and Sudan, are seeing the high opportunity cost of investing tomorrow's money in archaic technologies. All they bought faster by spending tomorrow yesterday is they bought yesteryear for themselves and now lack the ability to catch up with today. Those that believe in the False Dichotomy of China vs US, as though Earth were as flat as those two dimensional charts economists love, and as though infinite growth were possible, voluntarily prime themselves for slavery’s debates. The automatic skepticism of some Chinese people is merely Appeal to Ignorance in reverse, which is  technique economists use to make slaves, so, those arguing against learning fallacy rejection from me have been volunteering to learn how to be enslaved such asby meekly acquiescing to TOEFL questions. Of the US and China, the stronger position prior to re-establishment of western bank regulation and re-establishment of the gold standard in America, China is stronger by holding the debt. However, no economists who sees only flat surfaces can know the value of meeting the people and talking with the people, which is how we can learn of the civil war by which we are segregating the populations according to whether the individuals spend yesterday tomorrow, spend tomorrow yesterday, or are still asking how to add value while asking us to believe they don’t know how.

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